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I have no idea if 2020 will prove to be a better year for retail or who will win the forthcoming election but there is another potential bump in the road for retail – and again, it is Brexit related. The issue relates to the cash impact of VAT on imports.
Let me explain….
At present all imports and exports to and from the EU do not have VAT – it’s a single market. After we leave there will be a customs border with import duties and VAT at the point of entry (pretty much all goods from clothes to wine – VAT doesn’t apply to food so the major food retailers are largely spared). The import duties are likely to be passed onto the consumer in the form of higher prices. The VAT will be reclaimed by the purchaser (the retailer) from HMRC in the quarterly VAT return.